Staying Alive in NFL Week 5

Staying Alive in Week #5

The Cincinnati Bengals. Sports handicappers and sports bettors would be remiss not to put this team at the forefront. Cincinnati has taken the 2014 season by storm and is only showing signs of getting better still. The Bengals are the hottest thing going, and bettors know it taking 69% of the Bengals’ market.

With Cincinnati priced at -1, this looks like it’s a viable bet and worthy of a close look.

In week #2, we saw QB Andy Dalton and the Bengals top the Falcons 24-10. In terms of scoring, the Bengals are in the bottom half of the league, so 24 points is a remarkable achievement and could signal an offense that’s beginning to connect. With that said, it’s tough to handicap the Bengal’s offense because the Atlanta Falcons have the worst defense in the league. The point of interest for the Bengals, in week #2, is the fact that they allowed only 10 points vs the Falcons, the 2nd strongest scoring machine in the league.

This is a massive point on Cincinnati’s defense…especially if they could produce a repeat performance.

In week #3, we find exactly that.

In week #3, the Bengals faced the Tennessee Titans and dismantled them 33 – 7. The Titans are 4th last in scoring and they are 4th poorest in terms of defense. Yeah, the Titans were a target, but a 33 – 7 final speaks of a well-oiled Bengals teams, particularly given their performance in the prior week.

The Patriots have been providing their own separate narrative. In week #3, the Patriots did-in the Oakland Raiders 16 – 9.  Oakland has the #1 poorest offense in the league, and they’ve got a bottom tier 7th worst defense. The Patriots won, but despite the win, it’s considered that they under-performed and fell well short of the spread.

Despite New England’s brilliant week 2 performance, they stutter-stepped in week #3, but tripped and fell flat on their face in week #4. In week #4, the Patriots faced the Kansas City Chiefs for Monday Night Football. The Chiefs shut them down and unleashed prolific amounts of wear and tear on the Patriots’ defense as they dismantled them in a 41 – 14 embarrassment. They also toned down the Patriots’ normally solid scoring, limiting them to only 14 points. Tom Brady was not himself and unless he’s made some serious adjustments, the Patriots’ squad is in for another loss vs. this red hot Cincinnati squad.

ATS Forecast backs up the narrative as it predicts the Bengals to score 22 points and the Patriots to score just 14.

ATS Matchups further supports the Cincinnati pick when we look at a few heads-up stats:

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -1

Another point that can’t go without mentioning is definitely QB Brian Hoyer and his Cleveland offense. His experience in 2014 has been bittersweet. On his W/L tally, he’s got a losing record of 1-2, but Hoyer has thrown zero interceptions in all of 2014 and has passed for a whopping 290 yards in his last outing vs the #3 defense of the Baltimore Ravens. For the Browns to fight to a 23 – 21 loss versus the Ravens is no small matter. Hoyer and his offense are onto something to mark numbers like that against competition like that.

In week #5, the Browns are up versus the Tennessee Titans who are arguably the worst team in the league so far this season. To see the Titans face a rock solid Cleveland squad should be considered a complete mismatch. To think that Vegas has priced the Browns as a +1 underdog WTS is almost mind-blowing. Tennessee had a great 26 – 10 showing vs the Chiefs in week 1, but aside from that, they’ve allowed more and more points as the weeks go by giving up 45 against the Giants in week 4.

QB Jake Locker is posted as ‘probable’ to return this Sunday but it’s tough to think about this as some kind of a high point. Locker has thrown 4 interceptions and the Titans marked a measly 17 points in the 2 games that he’s played across week 2 and week 3.
Historically, Cleveland has got the short end of the stick in their last 10 outings vs the Titans (4 – 6 ATS), but again, looking at the momentum and the statistics, for this week, in real-time, the Browns look to be especially poised to roll over the Titans and the +1 spread that Vegas has set.

The ATS Raymond Report supports the real-time analysis and gives Tennessee a miniscule chance of surviving this contest intact.

TEAM: CLEVELAND BROWNS
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 24.67 25.67
Home Games Avg 23.5 23.5
Road Games Avg 27 30
Last 3 Games Avg 24.67 25.67
Last 5 Games Avg N/A N/A
Last 10 Games Avg N/A N/A
vs. Division Games Avg 24 26.5
vs. Conference Games Avg 24 26.5
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 26 24
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 21 23
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 27 30
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 26 24
After a Win Games Avg 21 23
After a Lost Games Avg 26 24
After a SU Road Win Games Avg N/A N/A
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 26 24
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 21 23
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg N/A N/A
After an Over Games Avg 23.5 23.5
After an Under Games Avg N/A N/A
After a Push Games Avg N/A N/A
24.36 25.09

These games will be a highlight to enjoy watching and the opening kick-off can’t come soon enough!

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