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 ronnyray2917 (Ron Raymond)
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Article Title ::Sports Betting Tips #11: Back to Back Ė 3 in 4 Nights (2013-01-28)
By Sports Handicapper Ron Raymond January 28th 2013 Fatigue is making NHL coaches play more defensively and early indication might make the odds makers in Vegas adjust their totals numbers. Everybody knew the shotgun schedule the league implemented after the NHL lockout would really challenge each organization and test their farm system depth. Donít be surprised when players from the East Coast League and the CHL start pumping up players up the food chain, because injuries are starting to mount. NHL Bettors should keep a keen eye out on the UNDER when NHL Hockey teams are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, as the UNDER is now 22-7-1 since the start of the regular season. Furthermore, itís not surprising how many 1-goal games and overtime games we are seeing thus far, as team realize they have to play conservative to stay in the playoff race. Itís kind of funny when announcers have to talk about protecting that 1-goal lead in the middle of a game! However, my research has shown, teams who have 4 wins or less in their first 10 games, decrease their chances of making the playoffs and itís even worse if they donít reach the 11 wins plateau at the 20 game mark. Therefore, with teams playing more conservative this season, itís imperative pro-line players or online bettors do their handicapping before wagering, because parity has now crept into the back to back and 3 games in 4 nightís situations. When Iím handicapping a game, either it be NBA or NHL, if I see a Back to Back game situation, the first thing I look for, did that team win or lose the first game in the back to back situation. NHL teams playing in back to back game situations as of Monday, January-28-13 are 14-19 SU with the OVER/UNDER at 12-18-3. NBA teams playing in back to back games are 148-150-11 ATS, 134-174 and the total is 145-160-4. In fact, NHL teams playing 3 games in 4 nights this season, teams are 12-18 SU and the UNDER is 22-7-1! NBA Teams have a familiar schedule and the numbers reflect the same type of advantages, teams are 213-187-16 ATS, 199-217 SU and 201-211-4 favoring the UNDER slightly. The only scheduling difference in the NBA compared to the NHL, they schedule 4 games in 5 nights and here is where you see fatigue hurt NBA teams. NBA teams are 17-34-0 ATS and SU in the 4 in 5 games position, and whatís even more surprising, the totals numbers practically reflect the same statistics, with the UNDER being 34-16-1. Letís face it, handicapping sports has hundreds if not thousands of angles to consider and you get to a point, where youíre over analyzing everything. Itís part of the game, because once you feel you have an edge and it works for a few weeks, eventually things balance out and you are back at square one. Take the back to back and 3 games in 4 nights for what itís worth and right now, the UNDER is the edge you want to consider. If I look at Sundayís NHL games, we had 8 games scheduled and 5 of them went into OVERTIME and 6 of the games ended in a 1-goal game. Considering many of the games are finishing in a 1-goal difference, hereís another piece of statistical tidbit to keep an eye out. Keep an eye out on teams, who are coming off two 1-goal game loses, they are 10-3 (76%) SU in their next game this season!