Sports’ betting is much like the stock market, you have to keep your finger on the pulse of the league and be on the watch out for the next “fanny and Freddie” type teams! In fact, as we’ve seen in Montreal, team chemistry and the environment of a club can tank faster then free beer at a frat party!
When a handicapper says there’s “good value” on the home team or the road team, what exactly do they mean by that expression? Keep in mind, when your betting on a game, sure your gut instinct will tell you to bet on a certain team, but does your wallet tell you the same thing? Let’s face it, any Joe blow off the street can bet on the Detroit Red Wings -300 at home vs. a team that is hitting 30% on the season and have not won a road game all year, but where’s the value in laying 3 times your initial wager? The risk is too greater than the reward, therefore, there’s no “value” in betting on the Red Wings at this price. Why would you want to give yourself ulcers by watching this game, especially if Detroit is down by 2 goals in the third period? It doesn’t make any financial sense, unless you throw them in a 3-team parlay that gives you a better return on your investment.
Let’s review the current “NHL Market” as of February 23, 2009. There’s roughly between 20 to 23 games for each NHL teams left on the regular season and which team would you consider to have “value” at this time of the year? In fact, I’ve gone through my database, as I wanted to see which teams have been consistent the last 45 days and which teams have tailed off a bit from their fast start of the season.
Don’t look now, but the New Jersey Devils without Marty Brodeur are one of your top value teams, as they are 15-5 (SU) since January 9th. Other good teams who have 12 wins since January 9th are the Blackhawks, Blue Jackets and Stars. Therefore, if you can get any of these teams as an UNDERDOG or laying -135 or less, I would consider them good value.
As for teams who might be over priced and you may want to pass when they are laying more then -140; are the Ducks, Avalanche, Rangers and Canadiens. The Islanders and Leafs have been the worst teams the last 45 days, but teams like Montreal and the Rangers are clubs who get too much respect from the bookmakers at times because they play in a big hockey market, and betting on them is like hitching a ride with a guy who’s had 8 beers!
As for betting on the totals; the UNDER is 14-6-0 for the Blackhawks in their last 20 games, while the OVER is 13-4-3 for the Habs. Speaking of questionable goaltending, now that Roberto Luongo is back, look to bet on the UNDER down the stretch in Canucks game, because the OVER was 13-4-0 for the Canucks since Jan 9th. However, now that Luongo is back and he’s getting his confidence back after his groin injury, I look for the Canucks to play more games that go under the total.
Make sure to check out my daily picks in the member’s area, because betting smarter will result in more good days then bad ones!