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WSOH CONSENSUS PICKS: WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT THE BETTING PUBLIC

Des Boodram

@boxscoreprophet

It’s about that time gamers, and I assume you have gathered your info throughout the course of the week and are now ready to make your picks, if you haven’t already.  Tough on you, if you chose New England to cover on Thursday, and yes I was as surprised as you to see Kansas City not only cover, but win outright.  We learned a lot about both teams in this one single game, but it’s time to move onto Sunday’s matches. There’s a lot of money flying around in Vegas, and lines are pretty much done moving.  Many of you have your picks in already, but for those who don’t here’s some additional analysis on what the public is thinking.

Los Angeles Rams +3.5

No surprise here – as the Colts are terrible on defense, and have no Andrew Luck.  The Rams have a bunch of new offensive pieces including an upgraded O-line, so clearly the betting public thinks this is enough to get the Rams over this line.  I agree as well, but let’s not pretend this is a sure thing.  We really don’t know how the Rams are going to be with Aaron Donald out, and who’s to say Scott Tolzien doesn’t outperform Jared Goff.  It is Jared Goff, and I’m not 100% confident in putting all my units on Jared Goff.  The public feels differently, and at the end of the day, I am likely overthinking this one.  Rams cover here.

New Orleans Saints +3.5

This makes sense because the Saints offense is going to be efficient here, and everyone loves the Adrian Peterson narrative.  I however have no idea how this game is going to go.  New Orleans has a terrible defense and Brees  has horrific home/road splits.  The Minnesota defense is healthy, so I’m assuming they’ll get stops and we have no idea what to expect from Dalvin Cook who is listed as a starter.  If you think Dalvin Cook can put up a line that is 60-70%  of Kareem Hunt’s, in his rookie debut there’s no way the Saints cover.  This is trickier one, but we love that Adrian Peterson narrative too much.

Los Angeles Chargers +3.5

This one is a bit more baffling, as the Broncos still have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  No one clearly has any faith in Trevor Siemian, which is understandable, but let’s not forget that he has a year under his belt, two high-end WRs and a deep backfield.  I’m not going to say the Chargers can’t cover, I’m simply saying the public seems to be discounting the effectiveness of Siemian and the dominance of the Denver defense a little too much.  We are all in love with the Chargers offense,   in two games against Denver last year Philip Rivers had three TDs and three INTs, while averaging less than 250 yards in the year.  Nothing guaranteed here.

Atlanta Falcons -6.5

The betting public has no faith in Mike Glennon and all the weapons he has round him, nor do they believe that the Atlanta Falcons will have a Super Bowl hangover.  I couldn’t agree more, and I’m shocked this game isn’t higher up on the CONSENSUS list.  Vegas is smart however, so there’s always that in the back of my mind.  The Falcons are a bit slower on grass, but I think they make a huge statement in Week 1, that they aren’t going anywhere this season, and it will start with a double-digit win on the road in Chicago.

New York Giants +3.5

Moving down the list to the  tenth most active game, the public I believe is assuming a 100% Odell Beckham Jr. which is a monster assumption.  He’s still 50/50 to play, and the Giants don’t cover without him.  The line has actually moved to 4.5 which would make me feel a bit better, but I bet this game assuming a 75% Odell Beckham and that the fact the Giants have had the Cowboys number lately including two wins last season.  Ezekiel Elliot averaged only 75 yards and ZERO TDs against the Giants last season despite running behind an O-line full of ogers.  This should be concerning, and this is why the public is on New York in this one.  Odell is the X-factor here, so we will soon see.

Good Luck Gamers!

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